The two greatest persons of interest in this week’s mailbag: Jimmy Garoppolo and the man who will (likely? probably? maybe?) protect his blind side in 2021, left tackle Trent Williams.
Williams is poised to hit the free-agent market next week, at which point he could become the highest-paid tackle in all of the land. Garoppolo? Not everyone bought John Lynch’s assertion last month that Garoppolo will remain the 49ers’ starter.
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Does The Athletic’s Michael Lombardi believe Lynch?
“Of course not,” he wrote recently. “They are too active, too aggressive to run it back one more year with someone they don’t have complete trust in.”
When The Athletic asked 32 beat writers to predict which quarterback will be their team’s Week 1 starter, two listed Garoppolo — me and Patriots writer Jeff Howe. (Jimmy’s gonna rack up some impressive frequent-flier miles in 2021). He was the only quarterback who was doubled up.
Here are your questions. As always they were lightly edited for content. …
I interpreted the Trent Williams interview as he is hitting free agency as a way to leverage a better offer out of San Francisco and that he’ll probably be back unless a team makes a ridiculous can’t-refuse offer. Your thoughts/prediction? — Aaron M.
Yes, I think that’s right. And he essentially said the same thing at the end of the season, too, when he noted he was curious to see what his actual value is. For those who haven’t listened to the interview Williams did with Richard Sherman (see, I told you I was worried that guy would take my job) on the Cris Collinsworth podcast, it’s worth a listen. There were three things that caught my ear:
• Williams said he figured he’d play six more seasons. He’ll be 33 before the 2021 season begins.
• He said he thought his “year off” — when he was treated for, and recovered from, cancer — gave him renewed bounce and vigor.
• He and Sherman spoke highly of Kyle Shanahan. Williams noted that his combination of speed and strength means he can play in any system (and thus would be an option for any team in free agency). But he also said that Shanahan’s system makes him a focal point of the offense.
“Kyle’s system kind of puts me on display a little bit more than the other systems,” he said.
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All of which further suggests he wants to come back. Does that undermine his bargaining position? No, I thought it did the opposite. He essentially said he’s fresh, wants to play until he’s almost 40 and thus is worth the six-year deal that averages $23.5 million that it will probably take to get him back.
Besides Jimmy Garoppolo, are there any players that teams covet on this roster? Do you believe the 49ers could move a player, and who could the likely players be? — Eric A.
Other teams would covet young, productive players who — especially given this year’s cap situation — are still on their rookie deals. We’re talking: Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel on offense and Javon Kinlaw and Nick Bosa on defense. What about Mike McGlinchey? He’s got one more season on his rookie deal plus an option for a fifth season.
Does a deal with Williams affect the team’s long-term plans for McGlinchey? Much like the DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead scenario. — Joe D.
Well, the goal is to have two top tackles. McGlinchey has an affordable $6 million cap hit for the upcoming season. But that will jump to nearly $11 million the following season if the 49ers pick up his fifth-year option by May 3. Yes, the league’s 2022 salary-cap will expand, but the 49ers already have a big chunk of change committed because they’ve started backloading contracts, and they could go that route even more heavily with deals for Williams and Fred Warner.
All of which is to say, I think it’s a legitimate question. If Williams lands a five- or six-year contract, can the 49ers also afford to do a long-term deal with McGlinchey? Or do they go the draft route in 2022 or 2023? To use your example, the 49ers decided they couldn’t juggle two long-term extensions for defensive tackles, so they traded one and replaced him with a rookie.
How involved is Shanahan with the QB Collective during this time of year? Other than Justin Fields, do you know which prospects are training there? — Joe B.
Yes, Shanahan worked with Fields at the QB Collective. But if the inference is that it means Shanahan is hot and heavy over Fields in the draft, well, this was back when Fields was in high school. And I’m sure a lot of NFL coaches worked with Fields and that class. Sean McVay, Matt LaFleur, Kevin Stefanski, Mike LaFleur, etc. all have been instructors at the QB Collective. (And of that group, Mike LaFleur, who runs the Jets offense, seems to have the best shot to grab Fields).
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I believe that Fields is the only former camper in this year’s class. But future years — with guys like Boise State’s Hank Bachmeier and Ole Miss’s Matt Corral — will be teeming with passers who have had exposure to Shanahan et al. when they were in high school.
If the reports are true and Bill Belichick and company want Garoppolo back in New England, isn’t that the best signal for the 49ers NOT to trade/move on from him? — James S.
Hello. In the quarterback prediction run by The Athletic, the Patriots reporter thought Jimmy would play for the Patriots. Why does the national/Boston media think the 49ers won’t keep Jimmy? — Marie B.
It’s amusing to read one report that says something to the effect of “Garoppolo has been a disappointment in San Francisco and the 49ers are eager to move on” and then jump to another that essentially says, “The Patriots (or Washington or Chicago) really ought to think about upgrading their quarterback situation by adding Jimmy Garoppolo, who took the 49ers to a Super Bowl in 2019.”
Why are media members skeptical about the 49ers retaining Garoppolo? Because they keep making calls about other quarterbacks.
To answer James’ question, yes, it’s something I’ve written before: If the Patriots indeed are pining to have Garoppolo back, that seems like an excellent argument for the 49ers to hang on to him for one more season.
If the Niners have a wink-wink deal with the Patriots for Jimmy G, on draft day (ala Trent Brown in 2018), what’s their likeliest QB move? — Rob G.
Well, if it’s coming on draft day, it’s either trading for Sam Darnold after the Jets have taken a quarterback at No. 2, trading up for Fields or taking Trey Lance/Mac Jones at No. 12. In my mind, though, adding Darnold or Lance or Jones makes more sense if you keep Garoppolo for another season. If you ditch Garoppolo, you’re basically saying: We consider 2021 a rebuilding year.
Would the 49ers be inclined to make a lateral move at quarterback (acquiring a perceived comparable player) merely to save money, or would any move be solely to find a better player? — Jeff D.
The problem with the lateral-move concept is the year it takes to learn Shanahan’s system. A lateral move is actually a backward move.
Assuming Jimmy G is the starter and remains healthy — who would you target in free agency to bolster the offense that wouldn’t break the limited cap the 49ers have (especially after signing Williams)?
Curtis Samuel seems like an awfully good fit. He’s young (24), he’s fast, he plays out of the slot, he can be used as a running back and kick returner. Of course, that probably means his price tag will be too steep for the 49ers. He’s also from Brooklyn. If the Panthers let him get away, he might be drawn in by the Jets.
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Hey, Matt. What does it tell you that Lynch/Shanahan didn’t schedule a press conference before free agency? — David P.
It tells me they’d rather avoid bad news. The questions would include: What are your plans for injured Dee Ford? Or what are your plans with injured Weston Richburg? Or do you wish you had reached a deal with Trent Williams during the 2020 season? What are you doing to make sure you don’t have a repeat of the most injury-riddled season ever?
I’ve been assured that they will speak to the media after the first wave of free agency. We shall see.
Should the 49ers focus on edge rusher/D-line in free agency so they can focus on cornerback early in the draft or vice versa? — Gary H.
It’s an interesting thought. There are a lot of edge rushers about to hit free agency (see top-10 list below). So many that it’s hard to see all of them getting the big payday they want/deserve. The catch, however, is that it probably will take time — many months — for the true bargain-bin sales to materialize, and by that time the draft already will have passed.
Here’s what I think happens: The 49ers go big on O-line in free agency with Williams and go medium on cornerback with Jason Verrett. Then they go big on defensive end (first round) in the draft and medium on a cornerback (Day 2). Then they bring in some mid-summer free agents at all three positions.
The following is my money-is-no-object top-10 list of free-agent pass rushers. They’re ranked by best fits for the 49ers:
- Yannick Ngakoue
- Shaq Barrett
- Matt Judon
- Bud Dupree
- Haason Reddick
- Leonard Floyd
- Carl Lawson
- Romeo Okwara
- Jadeveon Clowney
- Melvin Ingram
The need for a better kick and punt returner has been well documented. I feel like special teams also struggled last year. Do you know if the 49ers looked into changing special-teams coordinators this offseason? — Andrew M.
No, because it wasn’t hard to figure out why special teams was so, well, un-special in 2020. The unit is largely composed of bottom-of-the-roster players, and the bottom of the 49ers’ roster changed each week because of injuries and COVID-19.
The 49ers, for example, essentially released special teams stalwart Mark Nzeocha last week. Nzeocha missed 11 games in 2020. In that way, finding a strong return man won’t be the only special-teams goal this offseason. So will identifying a handful of special teams stalwarts. Raheem Mostert, Nzeocha and Tarvarius Moore have been in that role in recent seasons, but it’s hard to see them being available for it in 2021.
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Some candidates: Linebackers Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles and Azeez Al-Shaair, safety Marcell Harris, running back JaMycal Hasty and defensive back Jared Mayden. I also thought receiver Matt Cole performed well on special teams in his brief role in Week 17.
Why does free agency take place before the draft? Seems like it would be better to be able to draft the best player available and fill in remaining holes with free agency. — Dylan B.
A lot of people have made that argument over the years. In a way, however, that’s already happening. Last year, for example, the 49ers considered a tight end (Austin Hooper) in free agency, looked at some prominent ones in the draft and ultimately took Charlie Woerner in the sixth round. When they realized they still had a hole there, they signed Jordan Reed just before training camp.
I think that the late, late free agency period will be even more prominent this year. There promises to be a glut of free agents who have a hard time finding jobs because of the salary-cap decrease. That is, there might be some significant pieces being added in July and August.
Do you think free agents will think twice before signing with the Jets since they would play on the MetLife crappy turf eight times each season? — Kyle S.
Is this question from … Kyle Shanahan? Wow, using a mailbag in an attempt to influence free agents? Kyle is going all out. (Full disclosure: The question comes from Kyle Stacy). To answer that question: Yes, if I’m Solomon Thomas or Ronald Blair — two free agents coming off ACL issues — the home stadium’s surface would be a major concern. Thomas was injured at MetLife Stadium in September. So was free-agent running back Tevin Coleman.
And if the league adds a 17th game as expected, the Jets will play nine regular-season home games in 2021, not the usual eight.
Outside of anything 49ers-related, what are you most looking forward to as things start opening up in California? — Jon J.
Bellying up to a sushi bar. My goal is to eat my weight in hamachi.
Hey Matt! *Poof* You have been granted the authority to make any changes to the NFL offseason program you want. What changes do you make? — Matt W.
The absolute first thing I do is eliminate the current, byzantine instant replay system and replace it with one that I call Game Observations and Determinations. It involves a lone figure — the game observer; no one knows who he or she is — who sits up on high and has various televisions and monitors in his or her station. If there’s an obvious officiating error, this person presses a button that alerts the on-field officials. (Maybe there’s a red light that gets installed atop every NFL goal post; it can be part of the NFL experience: Waiting to see if the goal post lights up).
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The system would be fast and efficient. You wouldn’t have to watch an official casually jog over to the sideline, peer into the replay booth for an excruciatingly long time, then jog back. You wouldn’t be subjected to the announcers watching the play over and over and OVER again. “Let’s look at it from that third angle again, Ken.” The new system would be so painless. You’d correct the egregious errors, but games would have flow. And if you had a problem with the outcome, well, take it up with GOD.
And … whoops … I just realized you asked about the offseason program. I was so eager to write about replay reform that I misread the question.
(Top photo of Jimmy Garoppolo, left, and Bill Belichick: Brian Fluharty / USA Today)
